Thursday

Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active regions. Several parameters, based on magnetic-field data from active regions, have been tested in recent years. None of these parameters, or combinations thereof, have yet demonstrated an unambiguous eruption criterion. In this context, we used the MHD numerical simulations of the formation of stable and unstable magnetic flux ropes of Leake 2013, 2014 to evaluate the predictive potential of the magnetic parameters. Time series of magnetograms are used from parametric simulations of stable and unstable flux emergence, to compute a list of about 100 different parameters. Our results indicate that only parameters measuring the total non-potentiality of active regions associated with magnetic inversion line properties, such as the Falconer parameters Lss, WLss, Lsg and WLsg, as well as the new current integral WLsc and length Lsc parameters, present significant preflare signatures, probably making them successful flare predictors.